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The ECB’s Monetary Policy Is Now Creating a Rush Into Derivatives

06.04.2016 Tyler Durden 0

Submitted by Mike Krieger of Libertyblitzkrieg

The ECB’s Monetary Policy Is Now Creating a Rush Into Derivatives

One of the most catastrophic things central banks have done in the post financial crisis period is destroy financial markets. Investors are no longer investors, they’re merely helpless rats running around the lunatic central planning maze desperately attempting to survive by front running the latest round of central bank purchases.

While actual macroeconomic and corporate fundamentals do still exert influence on financial asset prices from time to time, the far bigger driver of performance over the past several years is central bank policy. To understand just how destructive this is, recall what we learned in last month’s post, Japan’s Bond Market is One Gigantic Joke – “No One Judges Corporate Credit Risks Seriously Anymore”:

TOKYO — Fixed-income investors in Japan are increasingly assessing bonds based on their likelihood of being bought by the central bank, rather than the creditworthiness of the issuers.

 

Still, the fund manager desperately wanted to get hold of the bond because he bets that debt issued by Mitsui and other trading houses will be picked up by the Bank of Japan in its bond purchase program.Even if an investor buys a bond with a subzero yield, the investor could sell it to the central bank for a higher price, the thinking goes.

 

It goes to show that no one judges corporate credit risks seriously anymore,” said Katsuyuki Tokushima at the NLI Research Institute.

As insane as it may be, investors now acknowledge that fundamental analysis is merely an afterthought when compared to the far bigger influence of central bank buying. While this destroys free markets, fuels malinvestment bubbles and rewards cronyism, it doesn’t stop central planners — it merely emboldens them. The latest example of such hubris was on full display last month when the ECB’s Mario Draghi increased QE by a third. Here’s some of what’s happened since.

From Bloomberg:

A rush for credit exposure in Europe is manifesting in the swaps market because investors are struggling to find enough bonds to satisfy their demand.

 

The European Central Bank’s plan to purchase corporate bonds is fueling demand for securities in anticipation of a rally when the purchases start. Investment-grade bond funds in euros had inflows each week since the ECB said on March 10 that it would expand measures to stimulate the economy. That’s already suppressed yields and made it harder to obtain the notes, making credit derivatives more attractive.

 

Wagers on European credit-default swap indexes have more than doubled since the ECB’s announcement. Investors had sold a net $25 billion of protection as of March 25, near the highest since at least December 2013 and up from $11 billion as of March 4, according to Bank of America’s analysis of data from the Depository Trust & Clearing Corp.

 

“There’s a dearth of bonds investors can get their hands on,” said Mitch Reznick, the London-based co-head of credit at Hermes Investment Management, which oversees $33 billion. “In this liquidity vacuum, managers can use credit-default swaps as a proxy for the bonds that they can’t obtain in order to get longer in credit.”

This behavior is a lot of things, but “investing” is not one of them.

“The quickest way to go long credit is by selling contracts tied to indexes in large size,” said Roman Gaiser, who oversees 3.5 billion euros ($4 billion) of assets as the Geneva-based head of high yield at Pictet Asset Management SA. “That’s easier than buying lots of individual bonds. It’s a quick way of getting exposure to credit.”

 

Gaiser said he increased a long position in European credit-default swap indexes after the ECB announcement.

 

Though the ECB hasn’t said which bonds it plans to buy, some investors are holding onto securities they expect to be on its list, according to Rik Den Hartog, a portfolio manager at Kempen Capital Management in Amsterdam. Kempen, which oversees about $5.5 billion of credit, sold bonds and derivatives on Italian utility Enel SpA last month because the default swaps paid almost three times the spread on the notes, Den Hartog said.

So “investing” has morphed into simply front-running the decisions of unelected central planners. That’s all there is to it, and while that’s disturbing enough, there may be another unappreciated angle to this mess. When QE was rolled out by Bernanke, many of us assumed that printing money to buy bonds would be immediately devastating for the currency in question. The current state of affairs makes me question whether this assumption still works going forward.

If investors are merely looking to front run central banks, you could make an argument that QE can strengthen a currency, at least in the short run, as global fund managers move into the QE producing nation’s currency in order to front run central bank purchases.

So in the short-term, will further QE weaken a nation’s currency or strengthen it? It’s an important question to ask in this increasingly twisted world of global finance.

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The Recovery-less Recovery

06.04.2016 Tyler Durden 0

It appears that Ed Yardeni’s market-driven global growth barometer is peddling more fiction about the so-called ‘recovery’…

Can you see where perception diverged from reality? (and why…)

Source: Yardeni.com

Just remember, the market is NOT the economy (unless it is going up).

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As Pfizer-Allergan Sinks, These “Inversion” Deals Could Be Next

06.04.2016 Tyler Durden 0

While the surge in Q1 market volatility has had a dramatic impact on asset prices, and led to some unprecedented central bank interventions to stabilize markets, one product that has seen a dramatic hit and has yet to rebound, is M&A.

According to BofA, North American M&A volumes declined again in March, falling to $107bn from $140bn in February, $157bn in January and the recent peak of $410bn in November of last year.

The implication of the above is that investment banking revenues from M&A advisory work, which had been steadily rising over the past two years, are about to see a sharp decline. And, after a year which saw a record $5 trillion in global M&A, this will be a bitter pill to swallow for the banking community. The top M&A deals of 2015 are shown below.

 

However, that may be just the beginning of bankers’ headaches.

It is no secret that over the past several years, one of the primary drivers behind M&A activity was tax inversions, which however as yesterday’s striking announcement by the US Treasury made clear, are now effectively over, and with them goes much of the impetus for companies to merge.

And while the Pfizer-Allergan $160 billion merger may be the most notable casualty of the Treasury’s decree, there are various other deals working on corporate inversion deals or who have carried out inversions in the past. They are shown in the list below, courtesy of Bloomberg:

Progressive Waste-Waste Connections

Texas-based Waste Connections Inc. agreed to buy fellow garbage-hauling company Progressive Waste Solutions Ltd. in January, and announced plans to move its tax domicile to Canada. The new company would have an effective tax rate of about 27 percent, down from the 40 percent rate that Waste Connections pays now, it said in a statement at the time.

The proposed regulations would have an impact of less than 3 percent of the new company’s adjusted free cash flow, which is expected to be more than $625 million, the companies said in a joint statement Tuesday. “The two companies remain committed to the strategic merger.”

Waste Connections shares fell as much as 7.2 percent. Progressive Waste dropped 9.3 percent.

Terex-Konecranes

Terex Corp., a U.S. crane and construction-machinery maker, agreed to combine with Finnish competitor Konecranes Oyj last year to create a group with a combined $10 billion in sales, incorporated in Finland.

While the companies described the transaction as a merger of equals, Terex stockholders would own 60 percent of the combined business.

Since then, China’s Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science & Technology Co. has made a counteroffer for Terex. Still, with the U.S. closely scrutinizing deals that put American technology into Chinese hands, that deal would have its own regulatory hurdles.
Terex shares closed 2.3 percent down in New York.

Johnson Controls-Tyco

Auto-parts maker Johnson Controls Inc.’s planned merger with Ireland-based Tyco International Plc was targeted by Hillary Clinton’s campaign ads. Clinton called the plan to move Johnson Controls’s address to tax-friendly Cork “an outrage.”

Tyco itself got a foreign tax address in the late 1990s through an inversion, as part of a takeover of the security company ADT, which was incorporated in Bermuda. Tax inversions seem to be one of the few things the presidential candidates can agree on, with Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump and Clinton all targeting the practice in their campaigns.

Tyco shares declined 3 percent in New York. Johnson Controls fell 2.2 percent.

Mylan-Meda

Drugmaker Mylan NV said Tuesday it’s “comfortable moving forward” with a $7.2 billion deal to buy Sweden’s Meda AB, in response to concerns about the impact of Treasury rules.

Mylan moved its headquarters from Pittsburgh to the Netherlands in 2015 after buying Abbott Laboratories’ generic drug business in overseas markets like Europe. In February this year, the company agreed to buy Meda.

Mylan shares fell 2.8 percent in Nasdaq trading while Meda declined 1 percent in Stockholm.

IHS-Markit

IHS Inc., which provides data analysis, agreed to buy London-based Markit Ltd. for about $5.5 billion last month with plans to relocate to the U.K. The Englewood, Colorado-based company and Markit said in a regulatory filing Tuesday that they don’t expect the merger to be subject to the new rules.

“Based on our preliminary review at this time, we also believe that the other U.S. Treasury rule changes will not impact the combined company’s adjusted effective tax rate guidance of a low to mid-twenties percentage range.”

IHS shares declined 2.6 percent in New York Stock Exchange trading while Markit declined 2.6 percent.

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It remains to be seen how much of a hit on the future M&A backlog the Treasury’s announcement will have, but even if banks suffer a drop in revenue, there is one silver lining: tens if not hundreds of thousands of workers who would have been otherwise “synergized” aka laid off as part of the merger process, will keep their jobs that much longer, because instead of boosting shareholder equity and requiring the cutting of overhead to accomodate the new debt, many of the companies that would have otherwise merged will continue as standalone entities. As such they will need all the support they can get.

The chart below shows the combined employees of the top 10 M&A deals of 2015, and what our estimate is of the combined layoffs between them.